Moves by Dogara to defect from the ruling APC to the opposition PDP appear to be hanging in the balance at the moment.
The Speaker, who has been having a running supremacy battle with the governor of his home state, Bauchi, Mohammed Abubakar is presently walking a tight rope.
Having been allegedly squeezed out of the scheme of things by Governor Abubakar, it has become increasingly difficult for Dogara to gain control of politics back home.
The Speaker’s utterances and body language in recent times tend to suggest a slant towards the PDP. He boycotted the recent state and local government congresses in Buachi State.
Strategic and key political positions in his Bogoro constituency had since been filled with loyalists of the governor thereby leaving the Speaker in the lurch.
Dogara, who was initially rumoured to have resolved to defect about the same time Senate president Bukola Saraki defected from the APC to the PDP about two weeks ago, was forced to put his plans on hold.
Following the defection of 37 members on the floor of the House in July, the numerical strengths of the various political parties were altered.
At present, the APC still holds a majority of 192 members; closely followed by the PDP with 156. APGA -five; ADC - four; Accord Party - one; SDP - one; and one vacant seat.
As it were, it would require a two-thirds majority of 240 members to remove Dogara should he defect to the PDP with 156-member strength.
Put together, the number of APC members, joined with other parties stood at 204 against PDP’s 156 members. This still leaves a gap of 36 members to attain the 240-member two-thirds requirement.
It can be taken for granted that none of the 156 PDP members would vote in favour of Dogara’s removal in event of his defection to the main opposition party.
It is also doubtful where the 11 members that make up APGA, ADC, Accord Party and the SDP would swing when the chips are down.
Apparently, the horse trading that led to the recent defection of 37 members, mostly from the APC, was meant to weaken the numerical strength of the ruling party in the House.
According to The Nation, with recent developments in the National Assembly, particularly last Tuesday’s botched attempt, allegedly by the APC senators to impeach Saraki, the coast appears clear for Dogara to make good his threat any time soon.
Dogara may ride on the crest of the global uproar and condemnation that greeted the alleged attempt to impeach Saraki with the invasion of armed and hooded operatives of the Department of State Security (DSS).
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